Japanese voters handed a landslide victory to the governing Liberal Democratic Party in parliamentary elections Sunday, opening the possibility of accelerated changes to Japan?s economy and a shift away from its postwar pacifism.
By securing control of both houses of Parliament for up to three years, the win offers Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ? an outspoken nationalist who promises to revitalize Japan?s deflationary economy and strengthen its military ? the chance to be the most transformative leader in a decade. Although a lackluster turnout suggested that Abe might not have as much of a mandate as his supporters hoped, the margin of victory was large enough to suggest he has an opportunity to also bring stability to the country?s leadership after years of short-lived and ineffective prime ministers.
The win comes at a time when many Japanese seem more open than ever to change, after years of failed efforts to end their nation?s economic slump, and as an intensifying territorial challenge by China has nudged this long pacifist nation toward accepting a more robust military.
Unlike some of Japan?s previous colorless leaders, Abe, 58, seems eager to become an agent of change. He campaigned on this being Japan?s last chance to regain its economic stature as the country has been eclipsed by China, with Sunday?s victory apparently largely because of the early successes of his bold economic plan, dubbed Abenomics. But his apparent desire to stand up to the Chinese by rewriting Japan?s anti-war constitution to allow a full-fledged military rather than self-defense forces have raised fears he will go too far and further isolate Japan in the region.
A week before the election, he became the first prime minister to visit a tropical island near the group of uninhabited islets at the heart of the dispute with China. He had earlier raised eyebrows by riding in a tank and climbing into a fighter jet in front of cameras.
?Abe has a pragmatic side and a strongly nationalistic side,? said Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor of political science at Hosei University in Tokyo. ?This election could free him up to do more of the latter, which is what he really wants.?
It remains unclear how far the Japanese people will let him go. While Sunday?s results gave his governing coalition a comfortable majority in the upper house, they failed to deliver the two-thirds majority the conservative Liberal Democrats and other similarly minded parties had hoped for to easily revise the constitution, something that has not happened since it was crafted by U.S. occupiers after World War II. And the sparse turnout ? at 52 percent the third-lowest showing in postwar history ? suggests less popular support than the results implied.
By early morning Monday, officials said the Liberal Democrats had won 65 of the 121 seats being contested. When combined with the 11 seats secured by its junior partner, a small Buddhist party, the Liberal Democrat-led coalition had taken enough seats to gain a majority in the 242-seat chamber.
The largest opposition group, the Democratic Party, suffered a humbling setback, the party?s worst since its creation in 1998. The Democrats secured just 17 seats from voters who still blame it for failing to deliver on promised reforms after a landmark election four years ago that ousted the Liberal Democrats in what had seemed to herald the advent of a vibrant two-party democracy. Before the vote Sunday, one weekly tabloid criticized the impending return of the Liberal Democrats? effective monopoly as ?a return to the ways of our ancestors.?
So long as the Liberal Democratic Party?s coalition holds together, it will not face new elections for three years. That could free Abe to follow his early economic stimulus initiatives with the type of structural reforms that will challenge powerful vested interests and have been difficult to achieve in the past. While Abe has been somewhat vague on these plans, he has already pushed the country to join trade negotiations that could loosen small farmers? grip on agriculture.
Voters have given us this new period of political stability, so we have time to deepen the debate
Speaking to reporters after the victory, Abe thanked voters for ending the so-called twisted Parliament, in which opposing parties had each controlled one house of Parliament since 2007, adding to Japan?s political paralysis. But he admitted that he faced a serious challenge in convincing other lawmakers and also voters about changes to the constitution. (By law, revisions passed by Parliament must then be approved in a public referendum.)
?There is still a need to widen and deepen the debate on the constitution,? Abe said. ?Voters have given us this new period of political stability, so we have time to deepen the debate.?
He said he would also pursue an intermediate step to make the constitution easier to revise by requiring a simple majority in Parliament instead of the current two-thirds. But making this change would also require changing the constitution, and gathering enough votes to do so.
Still, analysts said Sunday?s win, coming just seven months after Abe?s party regained control of the lower house, had made reform of the constitution feel like a real possibility for the first time since it was adopted in 1947. In interviews outside polling stations, voters themselves said that anxiety about China made them willing to at least try some of Abe?s ideas.
?I agree with Abe,? said Noriaki Hibi, a 51-year-old telecommunications worker in the Tokyo suburb of Sayama. ?Given the current situation with China, I think we need military preparedness.?
That support could fall once discussion turns to the specifics of constitutional reform, analysts say, with polls showing a majority of voters still resist change to the pacifist constitution even as the possibility has become a more widely accepted topic of conversation.
?This is not unconditional support for Mr. Abe?s whole agenda,? said Jun Iio, a political scientist at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. ?Public support could evaporate if the economy starts to sour.?
Perhaps as a result, Abe spent much of the campaign promoting his economic accomplishments, which have included a rally in Japan?s stock market and, with the drop in the value of the yen, a reprieve for staggering electronics and other exporters. Analysts say the main lesson of Abe?s disastrous first term as prime minister six years ago ? when he was the first in a series of short-lived leaders ? was that he cannot push too hard a nationalistic agenda while ignoring the economy.
At that time, voters soured on him as he failed to address pocketbook issues and focused his attention on right-wing issues like revising school curriculum to end the teaching of what he and his core nationalist supporters characterized as a masochistic view of history that paid too much attention to Japan?s wartime atrocities. He resigned in disgrace after just one year. This time, Abe has maintained an uncharacteristically moderate tone since becoming prime minister in December and has emphasized his economic program.
It?s up to us whether we want to show that ambition again
On Saturday in front of a busy Tokyo train station, Abe evoked Japan?s economic heyday in the 1970s and 1980s.
?It?s up to us whether we want to show that ambition again or not,? said Abe, who punched the air as he stood atop a truck before a cheering crowd. ?I say, let?s go for it one more time!?
In one of his few mentions of constitutional reform during the campaign, Abe sought to allay concerns about his intentions by suggesting that he wanted to retain the provision that renounces war as ?a means of settling international disputes.? He also said having a more normal military was necessary if Japan wanted to play a larger role in international affairs, and to act as a full-fledged ally of the United States, its postwar protector.
Indeed, some analysts said the reaction of other nations, and particularly the United States, might be the biggest constraint on whether Abe seeks to revise the constitution. While U.S. officials have said that they would welcome Japan?s carrying more of its own weight in defense, they also worry that a clumsily handled move away from pacifism could antagonize a region where memories of Japan?s wartime aggression remain raw. The United States would be especially concerned about a rift with South Korea, its other main ally in the region.
?Abe wants to restore Japan?s place in the world,? said Yun Duk-min, an expert on international relations at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul. ?But how can he do that if he ignores the feelings of other countries in the region??
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